CourtVision / Measurement lab
Compare measurements, inspect rows, and export your selection.
Compare pitch usage with the center and spread of measured velocity.
One or more published rows omit a required cohort field, so compatibility is unknown. The selected cohort has no complete published definition, so rankings and summaries are unavailable.
Median velocity19 published rows; 16 numeric
Published definition
19 rows
693,037 pitches from the published 2025 Statcast pull.
Velocity and pitch-mix denominators differ when velocity is missing. Pitch-type rates are descriptive; they do not establish pitcher quality or prediction accuracy.
Full method and source artifactPublished experimental metrics
These are the project's published metric formulations. Prior-art labels include incremental contributions and novel packaging; inclusion does not establish universal originality or predictive value.
soccer_intl completes half its pre-game line motion by 2.7h before tip; nba not until 4.8h. tennis, wnba move most of their line >6h before tip.
bucket_move=n*mean_abs_move per horizon bucket; G(h)=cum far->near / total; half_life = h where G(h)=0.50 (interpolated).mlb stays contested later (LCF 0.833) than soccer_intl (LCF 0.748). (nba comeback-rate cross-check 0.0146)
LCF = decided_clockfrac_median at the non-masked threshold whose decided_frac_of_games is closest to 0.50 (higher = contested later).Most one-star-fragile: DEN (Nikola Jokić, delta_winprob 0.5822). Two estimators name the same #1 player for 1/30 teams (directional cross-check, different seasons).
LBI_a = max_player (p_win_with - p_win_without) [Elo on/off]; LBI_b = max_player (win_rate_active - win_rate_missed) [raw]; agreement = same #1 player.mlb: MFP rises from 0.06 to 0.24 over the game (mean 0.25); soccer_intl: MFP rises from 0.64 to 1.71 over the game (mean 0.92)
MFP(t) = ((naive-market)/naive - (naive-model)/naive) / max(entropy_market_bits, 0.15)soccer_intl: overshoot 0.286 but model matches or improves on the reference only 22% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.081 (a failure to harvest, not an advantage); mlb: overshoot 0.072 but model matches or improves on the reference only 38% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.009 (a failure to harvest, not an advantage)
OHG = (n-weighted mean |moved_to - outcome| over {3-6pt,6-10pt,10pt+}) * (0.5 - model_closer_rate at >=.10 disagreement).Across 511,807 adjacent pitch pairs in the 2025 Statcast season a pitcher throws the same pitch type twice in a row 0.3533 of the time against the 0.3166 his own count-conditioned mix implies, an excess of 0.0367 (95 percent interval 0.0348 to 0.0385). The excess is largest when he is behind (0.0476, n=180,871) and smallest at an even count (0.0165, n=127,054), and at the same count the repeated pitch draws MORE swings and misses than the switched pitch (+0.0098, interval 0.0079 to 0.0120).
excess = mean over adjacent pairs of 1{type == previous type} minus (n(pitcher, count, previous type) - 1{type == previous type}) / (n(pitcher, count) - 1), by count class, raw count, previous pitch family, pitcher.Across 4793 NBA games the home win frequency rises from 0.4944 when the visitor is the better-rested side by two or more days (n=180) to 0.6409 when the home side is (n=259), a 0.1465 spread, while the two symmetric-congestion groups show no visible difference: at an equal differential both on a back-to-back win 0.5510 (n=245) against 0.5518 (n=2394) when neither is.
P(home win | rest_days_home - rest_days_away in cell), and on the priced subset the same frequency minus the mean devigged pregame market forecast for that cell.Most-taxed schedule: DEN 2025-26 (-0.38 pts/100 ORtg season-averaged); least: MEM 2025-26 (-0.27). League schedule-inequality range 0.11 pts/100 across 90 team-seasons.
SFT_credible = b2b_freq * (-1.73 pts/100 ORtg); SFT_descriptive = b2b_freq * (-0.315 composite/36).Across 52078 MLB team-starts from 2010 to 2021 the starting pitcher's rotation day barely moves the win frequency: 0.5027 on four days rest (n=24333) against 0.5023 on five (n=18222) and 0.4999 on six or more (n=9014), and measured against the recorded closing reference forecast those gaps are -0.0019, -0.0003 and 0.0082, each inside its own 95 percent interval of zero.
P(team win | starter days of rest in bucket) over team-starts, and the same frequency minus the mean devigged closing reference forecast for that team, reported overall and within reference-forecast bands.