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Novel Schedule Fatigue Tax
Most-taxed schedule: DEN 2025-26 (-0.38 pts/100 ORtg season-averaged); least: MEM 2025-26 (-0.27). League schedule-inequality range 0.11 pts/100 across 90 team-seasons.
confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Novel Schedule Fatigue Tax
Schedule Fatigue TaxSFT
Most-taxed schedule: DEN 2025-26 (-0.38 pts/100 ORtg season-averaged); least: MEM 2025-26 (-0.27). League schedule-inequality range 0.11 pts/100 across 90 team-seasons.
What it measures
Per team-season points tax from back-to-back congestion: its b2b frequency times the tested b2b performance penalty.
The formula
SFT_credible = b2b_freq * (-1.73 pts/100 ORtg); SFT_descriptive = b2b_freq * (-0.315 composite/36).
The results
| team | season | b2b games | b2b freq | sft descriptive composite per36 | sft credible pts per100 ortg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 2025-26 | 17 | 0.218 | -0.0687 | -0.3771 |
| ATL | 2024-25 | 17 | 0.21 | -0.0662 | -0.3633 |
| HOU | 2024-25 | 17 | 0.21 | -0.0662 | -0.3633 |
| GSW | 2023-24 | 17 | 0.207 | -0.0652 | -0.3581 |
| LAC | 2024-25 | 17 | 0.207 | -0.0652 | -0.3581 |
| SAS | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.2 | -0.063 | -0.346 |
| MIA | 2025-26 | 15 | 0.2 | -0.063 | -0.346 |
| POR | 2025-26 | 15 | 0.2 | -0.063 | -0.346 |
| MIL | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.198 | -0.0624 | -0.3425 |
| OKC | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.198 | -0.0624 | -0.3425 |
| CLE | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| DEN | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| NOP | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| PHX | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| SAC | 2024-25 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| GSW | 2025-26 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| PHX | 2025-26 | 16 | 0.195 | -0.0614 | -0.3373 |
| PHI | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.187 | -0.0589 | -0.3235 |
| MIA | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.185 | -0.0583 | -0.3201 |
| WAS | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.185 | -0.0583 | -0.3201 |
| CHA | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.184 | -0.058 | -0.3183 |
| LAC | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.184 | -0.058 | -0.3183 |
| ATL | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| CHA | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| CLE | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| DET | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| LAC | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| LAL | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| ORL | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| SAC | 2023-24 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| BKN | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| CHA | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| DET | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| MEM | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| NYK | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| PHI | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| TOR | 2024-25 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| SAS | 2025-26 | 15 | 0.183 | -0.0576 | -0.3166 |
| UTA | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.179 | -0.0564 | -0.3097 |
| TOR | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.178 | -0.0561 | -0.3079 |
| CLE | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.177 | -0.0558 | -0.3062 |
| BKN | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.176 | -0.0554 | -0.3045 |
| WAS | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.176 | -0.0554 | -0.3045 |
| IND | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.175 | -0.0551 | -0.3027 |
| NOP | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.173 | -0.0545 | -0.2993 |
| SAC | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.173 | -0.0545 | -0.2993 |
| BKN | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| BOS | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| CHI | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| DAL | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| HOU | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| MEM | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| MIL | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| OKC | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| PHI | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| PHX | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| POR | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| TOR | 2023-24 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| GSW | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| LAL | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| MIN | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| ORL | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| UTA | 2024-25 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| DAL | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| HOU | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| LAL | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| OKC | 2025-26 | 14 | 0.171 | -0.0539 | -0.2958 |
| DET | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.164 | -0.0517 | -0.2837 |
| NYK | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.163 | -0.0513 | -0.282 |
| IND | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.162 | -0.051 | -0.2803 |
| MIN | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.162 | -0.051 | -0.2803 |
| ORL | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.162 | -0.051 | -0.2803 |
| MIL | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.16 | -0.0504 | -0.2768 |
| DEN | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| IND | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| MIA | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| MIN | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| NOP | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| NYK | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| SAS | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| UTA | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| WAS | 2023-24 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| BOS | 2024-25 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| CHI | 2024-25 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| DAL | 2024-25 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| POR | 2024-25 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| BOS | 2025-26 | 13 | 0.159 | -0.0501 | -0.2751 |
| ATL | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.158 | -0.0498 | -0.2733 |
| CHI | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.158 | -0.0498 | -0.2733 |
| MEM | 2025-26 | 12 | 0.156 | -0.0491 | -0.2699 |
Prior art
INCREMENTALWe searched for prior work before claiming anything. Here is what exists:
The b2b fatigue effect is heavily documented (3-5% scoring drop / 1-3 pts / ~44% win rate / 2-4 pt spread adjust; academic 'Basketball performance affected by schedule congestion', ResearchGate 339933590). CITE the effect as prior art. The per-team-season aggregation into a points 'tax' plus a league schedule-inequality spread, anchored to the repo's own tested b2b_rest_penalty receipt, is the fresh packaging -- the effect is not new.
Declared confounds
- per-36 deltas are raw pooled means, NOT roster/opponent/minutes/home-away adjusted.
- the three density classes (b2b, 3in4, 4in6) OVERLAP and are NON-additive; this formula deliberately uses b2b alone -- summing b2b+3in4+4in6 would double-count congestion.
- the -1.73 pts/100 anchor is a single-corpus CONFIRMED_LOCAL effect: a DESCRIPTIVE tax, not a forecast, and not re-tested here.
- b2b_ortg_effect sign is normalized to a fatigue penalty (negative), matching the negative composite_per36 delta and the mechanism framing; the receipt labels its magnitude 'rested minus b2b'.
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/schedule_density.json
edge_claimed: false · descriptive_only
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