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Descriptive only — a measured pattern, no edge claimed.
Analytics module · as of

The back-to-back tax, measured in the box score

On the second night of a back-to-back, NBA per-36 box-composite production dips about 0.315 versus rested games (13.591 vs 13.905) -- small, but it stacks with schedule compression.
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Schedule Density
Chart: Schedule Density -- On the second night of a back-to-back, NBA per-36 box-composite production dips about 0.315 versus rested games (13.591 vs 13.905) -- small, but it stacks with schedule compression.
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/schedule_density.json

What it means

Fatigue shows up in the box score but modestly at the player level: the raw pooled per-36 penalty is -0.315 for a back-to-back, -0.217 for 3-games-in-4-days, and -0.193 for 4-in-6. These lenses overlap, so their counts do not add up -- a back-to-back that closes a cluster is also a 3-in-4.

Caveats & confounds

DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY, edge_claimed false; raw pooled per-36 means, NOT roster/opponent/minutes/home-away adjusted and NOT significance-tested in this module; overlapping classes are not additive.

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