With-or-without-you: the average swing is basically zero

What it means

This is a RAPM-free proxy for player impact: compare a team's win rate in the games a player played versus sat, inside his own tenure window. The average delta sitting near zero is the honest takeaway -- most 'the team is lost without him' stories don't survive when you actually split the games. The eye-popping individual numbers ride on a handful of missed games and everything a raw with/without ignores: which other stars were also out, whether the sit-games were blowout rests, who replaced him.