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The market's calibration lead over the model widens as the game unfolds

In MLB, the market's Brier stays below the model's at every inning checkpoint, and the gap widens as the game progresses -- market_minus_model_brier goes from -0.015 in the 1st inning to -0.0902 by the 9th.
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confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Info Arrival Curve
Chart: Info Arrival Curve -- In MLB, the market's Brier stays below the model's at every inning checkpoint, and the gap widens as the game progresses -- market_minus_model_brier goes from -0.015 in the 1st inning to -0.0902 by the 9th.
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/info_arrival_curve.json

What it means

A negative market-minus-model Brier means the market is the better-calibrated forecaster. The gap is small early and grows late: as more of the game is revealed, the market incorporates it faster and more sharply than our state-only model. That widening gap is the freshness we do not yet see, not a flaw the model can close on its own inputs.

Caveats & confounds

Novelty verdict is INCREMENTAL -- the same paired model/market/outcome Brier instrument appears in prior work; do not claim first-ever. Late checkpoints thin out (9th-inning n 2282), so read the tail cautiously.

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