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Analytics module · as of
In MLB the model gets certain faster than the market -- and drifts further from it
By the 9th MLB checkpoint the model's forecast uncertainty has collapsed to 0.3656 bits while the market still sits at 0.7244, and their disagreement widens from 0.07 early to 0.2791 late.
confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Market Convergence
What it means
This outcome-free view tracks two things over game time: how far apart the forecasters sit (gap) and how much uncertainty each still carries (entropy, in bits). In MLB the model's uncertainty falls faster than the market's -- the model commits to an outcome while the market stays hedged -- and the gap between them grows through the game. In soccer they instead converge (gap shrinks by -0.0486) as entropy decays toward zero.
Caveats & confounds
This is a labeled STANDARD_INSTRUMENT with no outcomes attached; entropy decay late in a game is expected, so it describes behavior rather than scoring accuracy.
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