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Price moves overshoot in MLB, undershoot in soccer
After an in-game price move, MLB prices land a few points above the eventual outcome (moved-to-minus-outcome +0.0518 to +0.0801 across move sizes), while in soccer the moved-to price sits well below it (-0.1945 to -0.3648).
confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Market Overreaction
What it means
This is the classic price-move-versus-outcome test, bucketed by move size. In MLB, wherever the price moved to, the outcome came in a few points lower -- a small overshoot. In soccer the moved-to price sat well below the eventual outcome -- an undershoot. The directions differ by sport, and the effect is one the finance literature already documents.
Caveats & confounds
The authors label this INCREMENTAL, not novel -- it replicates Moskowitz-style reversion tests -- and some soccer buckets are tiny (the 6-10pt bucket is n=21) and unreliable.
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