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Read-only snapshot: model data as of 2026-07-16; paper desk record through 2026-10-22. No live data; paper units only.
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Browse › Front-runner vs comeback: honestly not buildable here
Descriptive only - a measured pattern, not a forecast.
Analytics module · Source as of 2026-05-21

Front-runner vs comeback: honestly not buildable here

halftime margin & second-half margin per team-game from running pbp scores; split each team's games by led/trailed at half

confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Front-runner vs comeback: honestly not buildable here
teamn gamesfront runner 2h margincomeback 2h margin
ATL218
BKN2-8-12
BOS27-
CHA2-7.5
CHI2-0.5
CLE38.333-
The image contains prohibited vocabulary and clips its subtitle.
scripts/platformkit/analytics_showcase/out/ctx_team_states.jsonSource as of 2026-05-21n not published

How to read this figure

The league_mean_reversion block is the reliable stat (n = 52 team-games); every per-team row is flagged masked_below_floor and is illustrative only.

What it means

The intended analytic -- which teams protect leads versus storm back -- needs each team to appear in both halftime states enough times, and this thin 26-game slice simply doesn't have the sample, so the module refuses to print per-team labels rather than dress up 1-2 game noise as a tendency. What does survive is the pooled pattern: on average a team that led at half went on to a +1.346 second-half margin, its trailing counterpart -1.346, and the weak positive slope means halftime margins tended to hold or slightly compound in this sample.

Caveats and confounds

Thin corpus: most teams appear 1-2 times, so per-team splits are 0-2 games and are masked, never printed as stable. Descriptive stat only.