NBA / Counterfactual context

Team win probability with and without a lead player

Published scenarios compare team win probability with and without the designated player against a league-average (1500 Elo) opponent on a neutral floor.

Experimental formulation30 published rows5 fieldsDate varies or is unrecorded; see scope

Published measurements

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MeasurementPopulationOrder

30 matching rows; 30 contain with minus without.

CSV includes 30 matching rows, all fields, and source context; missing measurements stay blank. Published source dates and row provenance are included when available; structured provenance uses JSON cells.

Measured rows: 30 / 300 unavailable
Median: 27.56 ppMiddle ranked value
Middle 50%: 22.69 pp to 37.36 pp25th to 75th percentile
Observed range: 13.71 pp to 58.22 ppMinimum to maximum

Summaries describe the filtered rows with equal row weight. Row counts are not independent game or event counts.

Measurement availability5 / 5 fields have values

Reference population: All published groups. 30 rows published.

Text search does not change this reference population.

Availability describes published values only. It does not establish data quality or independent game counts, and measurement windows can differ.

0 ppWith minus without58.22 pp

Showing 16 of 30 matching numeric rows. Open a row to inspect all its fields. Rankings apply only to the published subset.

01 / Interpretation

What this measures

Larger positive differences indicate a wider gap in this published scenario. Read the player-on minutes and source caveat alongside every row.

02 / Calculation

With-minus-without is the published delta_winprob field; the probability and support fields are copied from the same team scenario.

Use the table to inspect available fields and the source JSON to trace the formula inputs. CSV percentage values are stored as fractions.

03 / Population & limits

30 published team-player scenarios against a league-average (1500 Elo) opponent on a neutral floor, not real matchups. Published source window: 2024-25 (Elo end-of-season) x 2024_25 on/off slice. Player-on minutes are retained as the available support measure.

The published scenario carries roster confounding. This scenario does not isolate the player's causal contribution.

04 / Source & method references

Published source JSON Published star-removal formulation

References explain ingredients and prior methods. They do not validate this derived analysis or establish its originality.