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Analytics module · as of
Context splits: even the streakiest scorers barely move
Of the 50 highest-minute players, the most context-sensitive shooter is Payton Pritchard, whose True Shooting % swings by only about 4.4 points on average across defense tier, venue, and rest -- his biggest single split is +6.0 TS points on the second night of a back-to-back.
confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending
Ctx Player Splits
What it means
Each player's efficiency is sliced three ways -- top-10 vs bottom-10 defenses, home vs away, and back-to-back vs rested -- to see whose shooting is most schedule-dependent. The headline is how little moves: the single most context-sensitive of the league's workhorses averages a ~4-point TS swing, and most of the top 50 sit lower. Player efficiency is far stickier across context than the 'he's a road warrior / he feasts on tired legs' narratives suggest.
Caveats & confounds
DESCRIPTIVE_ONLY: cells below 10 player-games are dropped as insufficient, first games of a team-season have unknown rest, and no opponent/lineup adjustment is applied -- raw split dispersion only, not a causal or edge claim.
Method.
- players
- top-50 by total minutes
- contexts
- opponent defensive tier: top-10 vs bottom-10 defenses by points allowed/game, per season,home vs away (is_home),rest: back-to-back (1 day) vs 2+ days rest, from game dates
- context sensitivity score
- mean of available absolute TS%-deltas across the 3 dimensions
- cell min games
- 10
- def tier size
- 10
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