Star Removal: what one player is worth in win-prob points
Descriptive only
How to read this figure
Each row is a team's most on/off-swingy player; p_win_with vs p_win_without are that team's neutral-site win probabilities against a 1500-Elo opponent with the player in and out, and delta_winprob is the gap.
Continue with the data
Open the interactive analysis: Team win probability with and without a lead playerWhat it means
Each team's biggest on/off swing player is mapped onto the Elo win-prob curve to ask a blunt what-if: how much of this roster's strength walks out the door with that one name. Jokic's swing is enormous because Denver's on-court net rating collapses without him and the logistic curve turns that into a near-total win-prob wipeout. The numbers are a ceiling, not a clean causal player value -- a full-lineup on-vs-off gap gets attributed to one man.
Caveats and confounds
CEILING: the on/off net-rating delta overstates marginal individual value -- it is a full-lineup swing with no control for teammates, opponent, coach trust, or garbage time (roster confound), and the net-rating-to-Elo conversion is a single frozen constant, not a fit. Descriptive only, not a causal finding.