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Read-only snapshot: model data as of 2026-07-16; paper desk record through 2026-10-22. No live data; paper units only.
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Analytics library

Cross-sport / In-game calibration

Model and market Brier by game checkpoint

Published checkpoint rows compare model, market, and naive Brier scores with the market-minus-model Brier difference.

Derived analysis30 published rows5 fieldsSource as of 2026-09-16

Data integrity

These MLB/soccer numbers are revision 2, computed on the segment-clean corpus (2026-09-16). Revision 1 values are withdrawn and kept in the regeneration receipt. Segmentation excluded 51,635 of the 78,986 MLB ticks (65.4 percent); the specifically identified label mismatches were a smaller 27,076 (34.3 percent).

  • info_arrival_curve
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Published measurements

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Rows describe different sports and are not comparable in one ranking. Showing International soccer by default.

19 matching rows; 19 contain market brier minus model brier.

CSV includes 19 matching rows, all fields, and source context; missing measurements stay blank. Published source dates and row provenance are included when available; structured provenance uses JSON cells.

Measured rows
19 / 190 unavailable
Median
-0.1333Middle ranked value
Middle 50%
-0.1484 to -0.126525th to 75th percentile
Observed range
-0.1811 to -0.1036Minimum to maximum

Summaries describe the filtered rows with equal row weight. Row counts are not independent game or event counts.

Measurement availability5 / 5 fields have values

Reference population: International soccer. 19 rows published.

Availability describes published values only. It does not establish data quality or independent game counts, and measurement windows can differ.

-0.1811Market Brier minus Model Brier0

Showing 16 of 19 matching numeric rows. Open a row to inspect all its fields. Rankings apply only to the published subset.