Ess Ledger

mlb: 78,986 residual rows carry the independent information of at most ~227 games.

confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending

No committed chart for this module — the receipts below are the evidence.

Caveats & confounds

Method. ESS from the already-committed lag-1 within-game residual autocorrelation (rho); because the game outcome is terminal-constant the probability path is smooth, so consecutive rows are near-duplicates rather than independent draws. The distinct-game count is the conservative anchor and the AR(1) figure is an approximation, so the reported ess_anchor takes the minimum of the two.

Novelty & prior art

ESS_AR1 = n_rows * (1 - rho) / (1 + rho); CI inflation = sqrt(n_rows / ESS)