Reading a Score Decomposition Receipt

Start with one published row rather than comparing a headline score. The inspector places Brier, reliability, resolution, uncertainty, and the reconstructed score in the same receipt. Read the reconstruction remainder as the stated difference between the recorded score and the binned calculation. It is a check on the published arithmetic, not an assigned cause.

Then return to the reliability inspector for the bins that feed the decomposition. The two views answer different questions: one shows the grouped forecast-outcome gaps, while this receipt shows how the published components combine. Keep the sport, side, and snapshot attached to each row before comparing them.

Inspect the worked example

Where to go next

• Calibration reliability

Sources