Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
mlb band 0-.2
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 3972
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.0549
- Calibration band reference
- 0.1
- Time buckets with data
- 7
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | 0.0000 |
| 5 | 453 | 0.0000 |
| 6 | 632 | 0.0411 |
| 7 | 1094 | 0.1152 |
| 8 | 1164 | 0.0507 |
| 9 | 600 | 0.0000 |
| 10+ | 26 | 0.2692 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.