Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
mlb band .2-.4
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 3935
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.1804
- Calibration band reference
- 0.3
- Time buckets with data
- 8
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 212 | 0.4104 |
| 2 | 164 | 0.2622 |
| 3 | 657 | 0.1796 |
| 4 | 691 | 0.1852 |
| 5 | 762 | 0.2008 |
| 6 | 832 | 0.1550 |
| 7 | 481 | 0.0457 |
| 8 | 136 | 0.2206 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.