Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
mlb band .4-.6
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 9042
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.493
- Calibration band reference
- 0.5
- Time buckets with data
- 10
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2532 | 0.4514 |
| 2 | 1903 | 0.5397 |
| 3 | 1319 | 0.4845 |
| 4 | 1262 | 0.5024 |
| 5 | 586 | 0.5819 |
| 6 | 620 | 0.4532 |
| 7 | 371 | 0.4340 |
| 8 | 261 | 0.5019 |
| 9 | 162 | 0.5123 |
| 10+ | 26 | 0.6923 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.