Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
mlb band .6-.8
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 5903
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.7154
- Calibration band reference
- 0.7
- Time buckets with data
- 9
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 845 | 0.4970 |
| 2 | 736 | 0.5802 |
| 3 | 1121 | 0.8153 |
| 4 | 1052 | 0.7852 |
| 5 | 683 | 0.7072 |
| 6 | 714 | 0.7955 |
| 7 | 533 | 0.7936 |
| 8 | 218 | 0.7385 |
| 9 | 1 | 1.0000 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.