Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
mlb band .8-1
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 3831
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.9556
- Calibration band reference
- 0.9
- Time buckets with data
- 6
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 26 | 1.0000 |
| 5 | 655 | 0.9817 |
| 6 | 781 | 0.9501 |
| 7 | 968 | 0.9504 |
| 8 | 1054 | 0.9602 |
| 9 | 347 | 0.9164 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.