MLB in-game win prob -- inning 5

Published observations

3139Source as of 2026-09-16

Model expected calibration error

0.0891Source as of 2026-09-16

Market expected calibration error

0.0355Source as of 2026-09-16

Calibration band reference, Calibration by time bucket, Observed outcome mean, overall, Time buckets with data not applicable to calibration time checkpoints.

What stands out

• The model ECE reported for this checkpoint is 0.0891 on the source's 0-1 probability scale.
• The market ECE reported for this checkpoint is 0.0355 on the same published scale.
• The card reports 3,139 rows, above its declared n>=30 render floor; rows are not a count of unique games.

These are descriptive ECE values for one published checkpoint. The as-of timestamp is a source snapshot, not an observation window. The manifest does not establish the ECE bin definitions or a count of unique games, and these values alone do not support a superiority, causal, or time-trend claim.