Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
soccer intl band 0-.2
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 1634
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.5688
- Calibration band reference
- 0.1
- Time buckets with data
- 6
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 109 | 0.3899 |
| 15-30 | 174 | 0.5690 |
| 30-45 | 232 | 0.6746 |
| 45-60 | 410 | 0.5732 |
| 60-75 | 342 | 0.5585 |
| 75-91 | 367 | 0.5599 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.