Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
soccer intl band .2-.4
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 922
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.5228
- Calibration band reference
- 0.3
- Time buckets with data
- 6
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 264 | 0.5739 |
| 15-30 | 227 | 0.5396 |
| 30-45 | 120 | 0.2250 |
| 45-60 | 216 | 0.4676 |
| 60-75 | 88 | 0.8295 |
| 75-91 | 7 | 1.0000 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.