Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
soccer intl band .6-.8
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 189
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 0.963
- Calibration band reference
- 0.7
- Time buckets with data
- 5
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 0-15 | 35 | 1.0000 |
| 15-30 | 43 | 1.0000 |
| 30-45 | 34 | 0.8235 |
| 45-60 | 57 | 0.9825 |
| 60-75 | 20 | 1.0000 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.