Descriptive only — these are measured probability-band outcomes, not projections.
Probability-band calibration · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
soccer intl band .8-1
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 256
- Observed outcome mean, overall
- 1
- Calibration band reference
- 0.9
- Time buckets with data
- 5
Calibration by time bucket
| Time bucket | N | Observed outcome mean |
|---|---|---|
| 15-30 | 31 | 1.0000 |
| 30-45 | 64 | 1.0000 |
| 45-60 | 100 | 1.0000 |
| 60-75 | 45 | 1.0000 |
| 75-91 | 16 | 1.0000 |
Market expected calibration error, Model expected calibration error not applicable to calibration probability bands.