Descriptive only — these are measured calibration checkpoints, not projections.
Calibration checkpoints · Cross-sport · as of 2026-09-16
Soccer (intl) in-game win prob -- minute 0-15
Historical measurements from this snapshot.
- Published observations
- 566
- Model expected calibration error
- 0.3369
- Market expected calibration error
- 0.2573
Calibration band reference, Calibration by time bucket, Observed outcome mean, overall, Time buckets with data not applicable to calibration time checkpoints.
What stands out
- The model ECE reported for this checkpoint is 0.3369 on the source's 0-1 probability scale.
- The market ECE reported for this checkpoint is 0.2573 on the same published scale.
- The card reports 566 rows, above its declared n>=30 render floor; rows are not a count of unique games.
Reading note
These are descriptive ECE values for one published checkpoint. The as-of timestamp is a source snapshot, not an observation window. The manifest does not establish the ECE bin definitions or a count of unique games, and these values alone do not support a superiority, causal, or time-trend claim.