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Analytics module · as of
Comeback atlas: where the model nails the game state
For a 1-to-5 point lead with 24-36 minutes left, the model's mean win probability is 0.6204 across 898 games and teams in that state actually won 62.03% of the time -- a near-perfect calibration match.
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Comeback Atlas
What it means
The reliability map is reshaped into a lead-by-time-remaining atlas of 84 game-state buckets, each carrying the model's win probability, the in-play market price, and the realized outcome frequency. In the bulk of regulation states the model tracks reality closely, like the 1-5 point early lead above. The honest exception is overtime: with a 1-5 lead in OT the model says 0.7113 while teams actually won 98.3% and the market priced 97.6% -- the model under-rates how decisive a late lead is, and the market is better there.
Caveats & confounds
Calibration/reliability measurement only, never a $/ROI/edge claim. Buckets below 30 games are masked; the widest gaps sit in thin overtime cells.
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