Soccer Home Advantage

Home advantage is real; the true-home/neutral gap grew not because true-home rose (it is flat) but because neutral-venue advantage collapsed over time.

confirmednull (a finding)not testabledescriptivepending

No committed chart for this module — the receipts below are the evidence.

Caveats & confounds

Method. Venue-control decomposition: matches are split on the real `neutral` flag into true-home (neutral=False) vs neutral-site (neutral=True), then goal difference and win/draw/away rates are compared within era and tournament type. The neutral split is the natural control -- not a random assignment.