CourtVision / Measurement lab
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Compare pitch usage with the center and spread of measured velocity.
One or more published rows omit a required cohort field, so compatibility is unknown. The selected cohort has no complete published definition, so rankings and summaries are unavailable.
Median velocity19 published rows; 16 numeric
Published definition
19 rows
| Entity | Median velocity | 10th-percentile velocity | 90th-percentile velocity | Pitch share (%) | Pitch-mix observations | Velocity observations | P90-P10 velocity span | Velocity measurement coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FFPublished rows | 94.5 mph | 91.3 mph | 97.7 mph | 31.78 | 220,235 | 220,233 | 6.4 mph | 99.999% |
SIPublished rows | 94 mph | 90.3 mph | 97.2 mph | 15.46 | 107,136 | 107,135 | 6.9 mph | 99.999% |
SLPublished rows | 86.4 mph | 82.7 mph | 89.7 mph | 14.34 | 99,357 | 99,357 | 7 mph | 100% |
CHPublished rows | 86.3 mph | 80.5 mph | 90.1 mph | 10.28 | 71,270 | 71,270 | 9.6 mph | 100% |
STPublished rows | 82.7 mph | 78.7 mph | 86.2 mph | 7.6 | 52,681 | 52,681 | 7.5 mph | 100% |
FCPublished rows | 89.6 mph | 86 mph | 93.3 mph | 7.48 | 51,867 | 51,867 | 7.3 mph | 100% |
CUPublished rows | 79.9 mph | 75.1 mph | 83.9 mph | 6.71 | 46,489 | 46,489 | 8.8 mph | 100% |
FSPublished rows | 86.3 mph | 82.2 mph | 90.9 mph | 3.24 | 22,473 | 22,473 | 8.7 mph | 100% |
KCPublished rows | 83 mph | 77.6 mph | 87.5 mph | 1.79 | 12,412 | 12,412 | 9.9 mph | 100% |
SVPublished rows | 81.8 mph | 78.6 mph | 85 mph | 0.49 | 3,427 | 3,427 | 6.4 mph | 100% |
UNKPublished rows | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | 0.37 | 2,544 | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
EPPublished rows | 50.1 mph | 38.9 mph | 60.3 mph | 0.14 | 970 | 970 | 21.4 mph | 100% |
693,037 pitches from the published 2025 Statcast pull; exact observation dates are not published.
Velocity and pitch-mix denominators differ. Missing velocity rows can reflect omitted groups below the 20-observation floor or missing pitch type or speed; they do not prove no pitches were measured. Pooled pitch-type velocity variation is not pitcher consistency or quality, and pitch-type rates do not establish prediction accuracy.
Full method and source artifactPublished experimental metrics
These are the project's published metric formulations. Prior-art labels include incremental contributions and novel packaging; inclusion does not establish universal originality or predictive value.
soccer_intl completes half its pre-game line motion by 2.7h before tip; nba not until 4.8h. tennis, wnba move most of their line >6h before tip.
bucket_move=n*mean_abs_move per horizon bucket; G(h)=cum far->near / total; half_life = h where G(h)=0.50 (interpolated).MLB: LCF 0.7368 at 3 runs (inning clock; 174 usable score paths). INTERNATIONAL SOCCER: LCF 0.5994 at 1 goals (minute clock; 26 usable score paths). Thresholds and clock units differ; these values do not rank sports.
LCF = decided_clockfrac_median at the non-masked threshold whose decided_frac_of_games is closest to 0.50 (higher = contested later).Most one-star-fragile: DEN (Nikola Jokić, delta_winprob 0.5822). Two estimators name the same #1 player for 1/30 teams (directional cross-check, different seasons).
LBI_a = max_player (p_win_with - p_win_without) [Elo on/off]; LBI_b = max_player (win_rate_active - win_rate_missed) [raw]; agreement = same #1 player.MLB / 1: MFP 0.051 (3589 checkpoint observations); MLB / 10: MFP 0.411 (46 checkpoint observations). INTERNATIONAL SOCCER / 0: MFP 0.6779 (150 checkpoint observations); INTERNATIONAL SOCCER / 90: MFP 1.4861 (33 checkpoint observations). These endpoint snapshots have different observation counts and do not establish an in-game trend.
MFP(t) = ((naive-market)/naive - (naive-model)/naive) / max(entropy_market_bits, 0.15)soccer_intl: overshoot 0.286 but model matches or improves on the reference only 22% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.081 (a failure to harvest, not an advantage); mlb: overshoot 0.072 but model matches or improves on the reference only 38% of the time at max disagreement -> OHG 0.009 (a failure to harvest, not an advantage)
OHG = (n-weighted mean |moved_to - outcome| over {3-6pt,6-10pt,10pt+}) * (0.5 - model_closer_rate at >=.10 disagreement).Across 511,807 adjacent pitch pairs in the 2025 Statcast season a pitcher throws the same pitch type twice in a row 0.3533 of the time against the 0.3166 his own count-conditioned mix implies, an excess of 0.0367 (95 percent interval 0.0348 to 0.0385). The excess is largest when he is behind (0.0476, n=180,871) and smallest at an even count (0.0165, n=127,054), and at the same count the repeated pitch draws MORE swings and misses than the switched pitch (+0.0098, interval 0.0079 to 0.0120).
excess = mean over adjacent pairs of 1{type == previous type} minus (n(pitcher, count, previous type) - 1{type == previous type}) / (n(pitcher, count) - 1), by count class, raw count, previous pitch family, pitcher.Across 4793 NBA games the home win frequency rises from 0.4944 when the visitor is the better-rested side by two or more days (n=180) to 0.6409 when the home side is (n=259), a 0.1465 spread, while the two symmetric-congestion groups show no visible difference: at an equal differential both on a back-to-back win 0.5510 (n=245) against 0.5518 (n=2394) when neither is.
P(home win | rest_days_home - rest_days_away in cell), and on the priced subset the same frequency minus the mean devigged pregame market forecast for that cell.Under review: the claimed ORtg fatigue tax used a scoring-margin contrast as its anchor. Published team-season back-to-back counts, frequencies, and the separate raw descriptive composite remain available; the ORtg effect is withheld.
ORtg-derived SFT is under review: the cited -1.73 is a scoring-margin contrast (no-rest minus rested), not an offensive-rating effect. The separate descriptive composite is b2b_freq * (-0.315 composite/36).Across 52078 MLB team-starts from 2010 to 2021 the starting pitcher's rotation day barely moves the win frequency: 0.5027 on four days rest (n=24333) against 0.5023 on five (n=18222) and 0.4999 on six or more (n=9014), and measured against the recorded closing reference forecast those gaps are -0.0019, -0.0003 and 0.0082, each inside its own 95 percent interval of zero.
P(team win | starter days of rest in bucket) over team-starts, and the same frequency minus the mean devigged closing reference forecast for that team, reported overall and within reference-forecast bands.